The Policy Development Facility Phase II (PDF II) is a flexible, rapid-response facility set up to support ‘champions of change’, to implement economic and social policies that lead to poverty reduction in Nigeria. Funded by UK Aid, its goal is to provide “champions of change” with improved capacity and evidence to enable them pursue vital economic and social reforms. Much of PDF II’s support is aimed at addressing constraints to economic growth and building the evidence base to support work in this area.
PDF II works primarily at the federal level supporting “champions of change” who are usually Ministers but also provides support to other high-level government officials. PDF II aims to support relevant National Assembly Committees, and non-government actors such as NGOs and CSOs who pursue implementation of social and economic pro-poor policies.
Objective of the Assignment
PDF II is in its 5th year of implementation and has achieved outstanding results on several projects which are documented in the Embedded Advisers’ annual and interim reports as well as the PDF II six-monthly report. Also, tracer studies and case studies have been developed to document these achievements and have been further distilled and summarized into ‘stories of change’. While these results were achieved through PDF II support, it would be unrealistic to claim that they were wholly attributable to the programme’s support without assessing the contribution of other factors/stakeholders to the observed outcome. Critically, it is important to know whether the results would have occurred even without PDF II’s intervention. While ‘contribution’ is widely accepted as a good approach to describing the results of non-experimental interventions, the challenge remains how to quantify how much of the results is due to the programme’s intervention/contribution.
Also, the programme embeds value for money in its financial and programme management, Knowledge Management and Monitoring processes as well as in project management from ToR design to close-out stage and are routinely reported. In addition, there is a need for a rigorous assessment of value for money of some of PDF II’s interventions in order to assess the programme’s ability to deliver high value wins at least cost. This analysis is therefore also expected to cover the domains of VFM, namely Economy, Efficiency, Effectiveness and Equity of key results achieved by the programme. PDF II requires the service of evaluators/analysts to carry out the assessments.
This study will be a series of case studies utilising a theory-based approach. Each case study would be an intensive analysis of selected project result as a single case to assess how each demonstrates value for money and the extent of attribution of the observed result to PDF II and other stakeholders.
Scope of Assignment
1. Attribution Assessment
To assess the extent to which the results can be attributed to the PDF II support, the following should be carried out:
a. Review the causal pathway for the achievement of each result and compare to the programme’s current theory of change.
b. Map stakeholders involved in the delivery of each result.
c. Develop a model for assessing attribution using contribution analysis (see Mayne, 2001). According to Better Evaluation, Contribution Analysis is an approach for assessing causal questions and inferring causality in real-life program evaluations. It offers a step-by-step approach designed to help managers, researchers, and policymakers arrive at conclusions about the contribution their program has made (or is currently making) to particular outcomes.
d. In addition to Contribution analysis, explore other methods of assessing causal attribution in evaluation (counterfactuals, alternative hypotheses and consistency of causal relationships) where relevant, to provide plausible explanations of the association between the observed result and PDF II support.
e. Estimate as much as possible each stakeholder’s contribution to observed result, by quantifying the proportion of contribution (See Attribution-Contribution scale by Jennifer Cohen, https://aea365.org/blog/attribution-vs-contribution-by-jennifer-cohen/).
f. Monetise the contribution where and if feasible.
2. VFM Assessment
The VfM assessment will entail both desk review and primary data collection through key informant interview, where relevant.
The following should be carried out:
a. Discuss with PDF II on how ‘Value for Money’ is defined within the context of the programme.
b. Map 4Es of VfM across each result assessed. For example, economy of inputs, efficiency of translating activity/inputs into outputs, effectiveness in translating use of outputs to outcomes, equity in delivery where possible.
c. Assess and interpret VfM across the domains using in line with PDF II approach, monetising the value where ever possible.
d. Utilise cost benefit analysis or any other suitable VFM assessment methodology to provide an estimation of benefits.
It is worth noting that none of the project results is comparable, therefore they should be treated on a case by case basis.
In carrying out this assessment, desk review and secondary data analysis will be carried out using existing documents at appropriate stages. These will be supported further with primary data collection from relevant beneficiaries and key stakeholders.
The methodology will be iterative – updated based on each case study.
The VFM and attribution assessment will focus on the following results:
• First Green Bonds by the Federal Ministry of Environment;
• Civil Service efficiency savings implemented by the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) of the Federal Ministry of finance;
• Savings and recovery of money from MDAs as a result of the clearance of backlogs of audited accounts by the Public Account Committee of the House of Representative of the National Assembly;
• Off-grid gas powering of 1,047 shops in Sura shopping complex in Lagos state in the phase 0 of the Energising Economies Initiative.
• Any other result included at the time of assessment.
The lead consultant on this study should have:
• Strong post-graduate degrees in Economics, statistics or related analytical discipline.
• Previous experience in carrying out attribution studies and value for money analysis.
• At least ten (10) years of demonstrated work experience as a research economist or policy analyst or an evaluator in a public or private sector organisation, think-thank, civil society or donor-funded programme.
• Experience of working and interacting with senior officials of government, multilaterals, corporates and international organisations.
• Demonstrated experience in preparing and presenting analytical evidence in a compelling manner – telling a good story.
Knowledge, Skills and Competencies
• Strong qualitative and quantitative analytical skills with the ability to draw reasonable inferences and quantify qualitative data where relevant.
• Excellent interpersonal skill.
• Excellent written and oral communication skills is important.
Working language: English
June 2019 to August 2019
Please apply by emailing your CV to email@example.com no later than Wednesday 5th June 2019 with the subject line of the email referencing the Position (CVs should not exceed 3 pages). Only preferred candidates will be contacted.
*Please note that all profiles are indicative only and subject to change once the ToR is made available. *