Due to the diverse and complex terrain of the Caucasus mountains, its significant influence and the influence of the Black Sea and Caspian Sea on the climate and weather of the region, Georgia is exposed to various climate-induced hazards including floods and flash floods, climate-induced geological hazards (including landslides, mudflow, debris flows), droughts, soil erosion, severe winds, hailstorms and avalanches. Furthermore, according to Georgia’s the 2nd and the 3rd National Communications, the frequency, intensity and geographical spread of extreme hydro meteorological hazards will increase under climate change and may result in significant impacts on key sectors including agriculture, critical infrastructure (transportation networks, buildings, roads, water supply, energy installations), natural resources and eco-systems, glaciers and forests.
To address the existing development challenges, UNDP Georgia is implementing a program aimed at reducing exposure of Georgia’s communities, livelihoods and infrastructure to climate-induced natural hazards through a well-functioning nation-wide multi-hazard early warning system and risk-informed local action. It will provide critical climate risk information that would enable the Government of Georgia to implement a number of nation-wide transformative policies and actions for reducing exposure and vulnerability of the population to climate-induced hazards, thus catalysing a paradigm shift in the national climate risk management, climate-proofed disaster risk reduction and early warning approaches.
The program encompasses three interrelated projects funded by Green Climate Fund (GCF), Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and Swedish International Development Cooperation(SIDA) and.
The GCF funded project interventions target expanding the hydro-meteorological and agrometeorological observation network, introducing methods and tools for gender sensitive vulnerability assessment, supporting establishment of a centralized multi-hazard disaster risk information and knowledge system, enhancing multi-hazard forecasting and modelling capacities and improving community resilience through implementation of early warning system (EWS) & risk reduction measures.
The project funded by SDC aims at reducing exposure and vulnerability of communities in Georgia, through development of multi-hazard risk information by introducing standardized and harmonized national multi-hazard mapping and risk assessment methodologies, effective national regulations, coordination mechanism and institutional capacities.
The SIDA funded project intends to reduce exposure of Georgia’s communities, livelihoods and infrastructure to climate-induced natural hazards through supporting implementation of structural measures in the affected areas.
Geographical coverage of the program is nation-wide, covering all 11 major river basins in Georgia: Enguri, Rioni, Chorokhi-Adjaristskali, Supsa, Natanebi, Khobi, Kintrishi, Khrami-Ktsia, Alazani, Iori, Mtkvari (same as Kura) focusing on the following hazards: floods, landslides, mudflows, avalanches, hailstorms, windstorms and droughts.
At present existing capacities of national institutions do not enable forecasting of hazards with high precision and accuracy, nor is the regulatory and institutional setup appropriate to support a well-designed multi-hazard early warning system. Among others, introduction of modelling capacities is integral part of addressing those issues.
The program seeks to provide support to national institutions in building capacities for multi-hazard and risk modelling and mapping, operationalization of multi-hazard early warning system and community-based resilience building.
Duties and Responsibilities
The overall responsibility of the international meteorological expert is to lead the process of improvement of existing weather forecasting capabilities, as a cornerstone for all of the hazards to be included in the Multi-hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) and integration of the new sources of data into the forecasting systems. The international expert is expected to support enhancing of capacities of the National Environmental Agency (NEA) in verification of quality of local and global forecasting products, assessment of quality of satellite products to ensure bias correction and full deployment of those data sources into the forecasting platform, acquisition, processing, analysis and use of weather radar data. Additionally, the meteorological expert will be responsible to address the need of implementation of assimilation and ensemble modeling techniques in NEA. In parallel, he/she will undertake a thorough assessment of the capacity needs in meteorology.
The expert will work under overall guidance of Project Chief Technical Advisor and in cooperation with International Expert on Forecasting Systems.
For the entire period of the assignment the international expert will be responsible for:
5% Deliverable 1 – Submission Work plan and Methodology. The methodology should describe approaches for implementation of each task and timeframes. The sequence of tasks and respective deliverables can be rearranged with clear justifications and reasoning. 5%
1 January 2022- 31 December 2022
8% Deliverable 2 – Report on capacity needs assessment that should include developed and filled in technical capacity assessment scorecard, capacity development plan and recommendations.
7% Deliverable 3 – Report on the provided support to NEA on implementation of the Local Area Models in HPC. The report should focus on the best procedures, approaches, recommendations, results and analysis of simulation launching.
10% Deliverable 4 – Report regarding the results of assessment of the quality of the weather radar data against the weather stations and also detailed recommendations on the suggested approach for the exploitation of the weather radar data for forecasting purposes. All the scripts for data acquisition and processing should be provided.
7% Deliverable 5 – Report on verification of global and local models that should include information about the possible best configurations for hazard forecasting for a range of scenarios, conclusions, recommendations, and reasons explaining the best configurations.
7% Deliverable 6 – Report on the accuracy analysis of satellite precipitation estimates to be used primarily for hazard forecasting purposes. The report should detail on the analysis of the following products: MPE from EumetSAT, GPM, JAXA, PERSIANN, CHIRPS for the selected past events and its adequacy checked for hindcast mode predictions (always using shortest latency). The report should also describe procedures for data availability for the forecasting platform, including scripts for downloading, processing and extracting the data for forecasting purposes.
7% Deliverable 7 – Report on the support provided for the inclusion of new modelling data sources into the local meteorological forecasting and enhancement of local models. The report should concentrate on best approach for the inclusion of ECMWF, ICON or GFS data in WRF or COSMO as well as initial and boundary conditions approach, best configuration and parametrization approach for both COSMO and WRF and recommendations and conclusions considering the results of every approach.
8% Deliverable 8- Report on the support in the introduction of weather radar data in the forecasting (in NWP and most importantly hazard forecasting systems) with recommendations regarding how those data can be used, developed scripts and procedures needed for this/
7% Deliverable 9- Report on support about data format, data flow and data processing for meteorological forecasting, detailing all the actions and the recommendations and the results of them.
14% Deliverable 10- Report on the support provided for assimilation outlining the whole assimilation process, the recommendations and the analysis of the results of implemented assimilation as well all the scripts required.
1 January 2023 -30 November 2023:
14% Deliverable 11- Report on the support provided for inclusion of ensemble forecasting and HIALCAST module to local meteorological model with analysis of the results and recommendations by also considering benefits for impact -based forecasting.
6% Deliverable 12- Report on the support provided for implementation of Model Output Statistics (MOS).
The international expert will work under direct supervision of Team Leader in Capacity Building Policy and Planning and Project Coordinator. The Environment and Energy Team Leader will be engaged in overall supervision, while the Chief Technical Advisor will guide the expert’s work. The expert will be directly responsible to, reporting to, seeking approval from, and obtaining certificate of acceptance of deliverables from the above-mentioned persons.
Leadership and Self-Management skills:
Required Skills and Experience
Offerors will be evaluated based on the cumulative analysis method, against combination of technical and financial criteria. Maximum total obtainable score is 100, out of which the total score for technical criteria (desk review and interview) equals to 70 and for financial criteria – to 30. Offerors that do not meet any of the Minimum Requirements will be automatically rejected, while the rest will form the long list. Technical evaluation will comprise of desk review and interview stages. Offerors who pass the 70% threshold, is obtain minimum 35 points as a result of the desk review will be invited to the interview. Offerors passing 70% threshold as a result of the interview (i.e. obtain minimum of 14 points) will be recommended for financial evaluation.
The financial proposal shall specify a total lump sum amount, and payment terms around specific and measurable (qualitative and quantitative) deliverables (i.e. whether payments fall in instalments or upon completion of the entire contract). Payments are based upon output, i.e. upon delivery of the services specified in the ToR. In order to assist the requesting unit in the comparison of financial proposals, the financial proposal will include a breakdown of this lump sum amount.Maximum 30 points will be assigned to the lowest price offer. All other price offers will be scored using the formula (inverse proportion): Financial score X = 30* the lowest price offer/suggested price offer. All envisaged travel costs must be included in the financial proposal as well.
|City, State:||Home Based|
|Closing date:||December 2, 2021|